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2005 VEGAS ODDS
Scott Douglass


HERE'S THE DIRT
March 8, 2004
By: Scott Douglass

As we head to Las Vegas and the crowning of the new champions at the Monster Jam World Finals the time is here for my annual preview of the biggest event in the sport in true Vegas style, my version of the odds on each truck's chances. For those of you who have followed this column in previous years you are aware that, again this year, these odds are "for recreational purposes only".

Before we get to the numbers, we should go over a couple of notes. First, in determining these "morning line" odds two factors weigh heavier than any others in my ratings: previous Vegas experience and results from this year's dome and stadium events, especially those on the Speed Channel circuit. Using these two criteria has worked pretty well in the past. Reviewing the odds from the past few years, while I always seem to miss badly on a couple of the competitors, the odds have been fairly accurate. For example last year I had Dennis Anderson and Grave Digger at 2 to 1 in racing, the second choice behind only the Bounty Hunter and I noted that it was Anderson's best opportunity ever to claim that elusive championship that he went on to win. In freestyle all three of the trucks that tied for the title were in my top five in the pre race odds and I even wrote that I thought a tie was likely, although the tie I was predicting was Grave Digger and Maximum Destruction. I point this out as a warning. Since I've been pretty close each of the last few years, I'm perfectly set up to look ridiculous this year! With that said, it's time to take the plunge and test my one time a year handicapping skills and set the odds for this year's Monster Jam World Finals.

MONSTER JAM WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS: RACING

9 - 5 Maximum Destruction, Tom Meents - The parity now in the sport is incredible, and this will be not only the largest, but also the greatest, most balanced field ever in Vegas. As the trucks throughout the sport keep elevating their game, the big two keep responding and raising the bar, so while the competition will be wide open, Maximum Destruction and Grave Digger are clearly the favorites. Tom gets the nod as the top choice for several reasons, all based in stats. Meents has the best individual record of them all in racing during the World Finals, with 15 wins and only two losses in his career at Sam Boyd Stadium. In individual round races on the Speed shows this year Meents has a record of 21 wins and only 2 losses. Maybe more significantly he has beaten Anderson all three times they've met this year, so Max-D is the pick to win a fourth racing title, and seventh overall championship at this year's World Finals.

2 - 1 Grave Digger, Dennis Anderson - It is very hard not to make the icon the favorite. He finally got the Vegas monkey off of his back last year and returns to defend the title as strong as ever. Of the 12 racing events on the Speed Channel series this season Meents has won 5 and Anderson has been on the stage at 4 of them, so 75% of the time one of those two has been the event winner. It should be the same here, and while Tom rates as the favorite it is by a very slim margin over Anderson. Dennis should be right there all night and may just make it two world titles in a row. One additional stat: Dennis is the winningest driver in round racing on the Speed Channel series this year with a record of 30 wins and 7 losses.

7 - 2 Bounty Hunter, Jimmy Creten - Creten has been struggling much of this year, but talking with Jimmy in the Silverdome he told me that after experimenting with several new parts and set-ups, they've basically gone back to the ways that have made this team so successful in recent years. He then backed that up in Detroit, making it to the finals and beating Anderson in a great semifinal race before losing to Meents in the finale. That had me refiguring the odds quickly and moving Bounty Hunter back up the list as one of the top choices. Remember, Creten is the only driver to put his truck into the final four at Sam Boyd Stadium in each of the last three World Finals, and I expect him to do it again this year.

4 - 1 Black Smith, Pablo Huffaker - Like Creten, Pablo has made it to the top of the mountain in Nevada but just didn't get all the way over it, finishing in the runner-up spot a year ago. Huffaker always excels on this stage, and he should have Black Smith advancing deep into the night, probably another appearance in the final four. And if you can make it to the semifinals, anything can happen. You have to figure Black Smith will be in the mix for the championship.

9 - 2 Gunslinger, Scott Hartsock - Hartsock has been up and down again this season, but at his best he can beat anyone, and I mean anyone, in this field. He's been here before; he's made it to the finals before, and joins Huffaker as the only racers who have beaten Meents previously at the World Finals. If he brings his "A" game he'll be a player here.

5 - 1 Superman, Chad Fortune - Having Fortune this high will surprise some people, but Chad has quietly had an outstanding year in one of the newest machines on the circuit. He has grown as a driver tremendously; has lots of Vegas experience; and he has great equipment that is now prepared for him by Ron "R. L." Arace, perhaps the best Crew Chief in the sport. By the way Fortune is the only driver not named Anderson or Meents who has recorded double figures in wins on Speed this season, posting a 10 and 7 slate in round racing. As long as he qualifies well and avoids an early match-up against one of the big guns expect Superman to be around for a while in Las Vegas.

7 - 1 Blue Thunder, Tony Farrell - Similar to another top Ford superstar, Hartsock, Farrell won't surprise me if he makes it to the semis. But is also won't shock me if he is eliminated early. Consistency is the key for Blue Thunder. It's a great truck with a talented, experienced driver, a combination that could shake things up.

10 - 1 Madusa, Madusa - One of the co-World Champions in freestyle, Madusa continues to elevate her game in racing and is someone everyone wants to avoid having to race early in the event. She seems to step up a little further each year so pulling a major upset and slipping into the final four is not out of the question.

12 - 1 An Escalade, George Balhan - Former Rookie Of The Year Balhan has never raced in Las Vegas before, which is one of the major factors I look at in setting the odds. But this young superstar loves the spotlight and is a very strong racer. He's made the finals in stadium events before in both the Turtle and Blue Thunder, so watch for this shiny new machine to win some races. As it is with most except the top three or four, though, qualifying well is key for Balhan to advance through the bracket's early rounds.

15 - 1 Monster Mutt, Bobby Z - Vegas experience makes the Monster Mutt dangerous. Bobby has made statements here before and could do it again, but it's unlikely he'll be able to get to the final couple of rounds. I think he'll be a bigger contender in freestyle.

17 - 1 Pastrana 199, Paul Cohen - Tough one to call here, since I have not seen the truck. Cohen did impress everyone with his strong qualifying run last year before losing early. Again, the previous experience on this unique track will help this rising star immensely.

18 - 1 Hot Wheels, Phil Foster - The number two Maximum Destruction team driver gets the opportunity to compete in his first World Finals, and he deserves it. Foster is a marvelous talent, but here the lack of Vegas experience makes him a long shot.

20 - 1 Avenger, Jim Koehler - Very simply put the 2003 World Freestyle Champion will be hard to beat and can win some early round races. But Jim Koehler is coming to Las Vegas to try and reclaim the freestyle title.

22 - 1 Scarlet Bandit, Dawn Creten - Most of the people that I've talked to in the sport are absolutely thrilled that Dawn has earned her first invitation to the World Finals. She richly deserves this. She has won a major stadium event this year and has that huge Creten horsepower going for her, but the first time out on this course is tough for anyone.

25 - 1 Black Stallion, Michael Vaters - The veteran has been here before, so he has that crucial Vegas experience. Still it's difficult to expect Vaters to be a major player on this track since he still spends most of the year on the popular Thunder Nationals circuit and rarely gets to race on a huge stadium course.

30 - 1 Destroyer, Dan Evans - Great to see Air Man Dan back in Vegas after barely missing the cut the last couple of seasons. Evans hasn't had lots of racing success this season. Most of his highlights this season have come in freestyle and that is probably where they'll come again in Las Vegas.

35 - 1 El Toro Loco, Lupe Soza - Soza puts a lot into his racing effort, don't get me wrong, but Lupe is really all about freestyle. He's not had much racing success in most of the stadium events I've seen, and more than anything else he is in Las Vegas to defend his piece of the world title.

40 - 1 King Krunch, David Smith - It seems really strange to have Smith rated this low in racing since he is a top contender where ever he runs on a week to week basis. Simply put King Krunch is a top-level machine, and his odds being this high is simply a testament to the top to bottom quality of this field.

45 - 1 Brutus, Chris Bergeron - Bergeron is another driver getting his first opportunity in the World Finals, and what's interesting is that he took advantage of the open track time that USHRA officials allowed after last year's qualifying and actually did test his truck flying down "Thunder Alley". I just don't think a test run makes up for not having Vegas racing experience. I'll say this though, racing or freestyle, don't blink when Brutus is on the track. Bergeron has provided some of this year's most spectacular moments.

50 - 1 Power Forward, Frank Krmel - Again, it's only because of the quality of this field and the lack on any experience on this racecourse that Krmel's odds are so high.

MONSTER JAM WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS: FREESTYLE

2 - 1 Grave Digger - I guess this is a bit ironic. I've made one of the freestyle champions the racing favorite and now I'm making the defending racing champ the freestyle favorite. Anderson has been on a roll of late and he is filling the time clock, which is a key here. And if Anderson does not successfully defend his racing title he'll be even more motivated (if that's possible) to win the freestyle crown. In his twenty-third year he is still the man to beat. Stat note: in the 12 Speed Channel freestyle competitions this year Anderson has five wins, and Meents has five wins!

5 - 2 Maximum Destruction - I'll say here what I've said in the past: if Meents follows his own advice he's right at the top and could win another freestyle title. That advice being that Meents feels that in the first minute of the expanded two minute time frame in Las Vegas you have to pace yourself, hitting the obstacles and getting the big air, but saving the most spectacular moments for the last 60 seconds. That's what he says, but the last two years he just has not been able to resist attacking the camper on the flat bed trailer early on, and it has damaged his truck both times. If Meents saves the camper for the end of the run he could be headed for yet another piece of the gold.

3 - 1 Madusa - The only female to have ever won a Monster Jam World Championship is back to defend her share of the crown. This track is so difficult not just because of the type of obstacles on the course, but also because there are so many of them. Trucks often don't have time to recover from one move before they are on top of the next obstacle. Yet this is where Madusa sometimes excels. She's one of the best in the business at combinations, flowing from one move right into the next, and that talent makes her a legitimate threat to win the whole shooting match again this year.

7 - 2 Avenger - Jim Koehler thought a second straight title was his last year when he came out onto the floor with a 31 (out of a possible 40) on the board as the top score. Then the truck broke right off the bat, and his championship reign ended. I think Koehler feels like he's been overlooked since he's not the champ anymore and he is as motivated as I've ever seen. Mr. Excitement will be on fire in Vegas and is determined to reclaim the title. I wouldn't bet against him which is why I have Avenger among the favorites again.

9 - 2 El Toro Loco - Some observers thought that Soza won in 2003. Then he got a share of the title in 2004. Now the motivation is to establish himself as the best, to defend the title and win it outright this year. The Vegas stage plays well for El Toro Loco, since the judges have rewarded the most spectacular moves with the highest scores. And every time out in Las Vegas Soza always has at least one of those "Wow" moves that you never forget, and I'm confident he'll have another this time out.

5 - 1 Hot Wheels - As we've talked about on television, Foster is the Valedictorian of the Tom Meents School of Monster Trucks. He will turn the crowd on with a huge air assault, and I think he is a dark horse pick to win the whole thing if the big guns struggle.

6 - 1 Monster Mutt - This truck was made to freestyle, and the driver has that freestyle mentality. Aside from those "Wow" moments that helped Madusa and El Toro win last year, the most spectacular single move at last year's World Finals was Bobby's incredible leap over the rock pile. It remains one of the most breathtaking leaps in the sport's history. Will he do it again? Bet on it, but he needs to save it for the final seconds of the run to end with the ultimate exclamation point.

7 - 1 Bounty Hunter - Boy did I miss badly on Bounty in this column a year ago. Knowing that Jimmy was the favorite to win the racing title I rated Bounty Hunter with very high odds in freestyle, way in the back of the pack. Then he almost won the freestyle a year ago. Remember, the winning score last year was 31, and Creten scored 30. He may not be the favorite here, but he's a great dark horse pick. I except Bounty Hunter will be awesome in freestyle and will score very well, maybe even well enough to win it all.

8 - 1 Black Stallion - Here is where Vaters should shine. His experience plays well in freestyle, and the lack of stadium runs this year is not a big negative for him. He's been here before, knows what to expect, and he will go for it.

10 - 1 Blue Thunder - Tony has to make sure he uses the clock, as does everyone. It's just that Farrell is one of these drivers who absolutely attacks freestyle, and when you go huge right off the bat on this course you run the risk of your truck not lasting very long.

11 - 1 Destroyer - Make no mistake about, Evans earned his return to Las Vegas with his fantastic freestyles this year. Keeping in mind that the most spectacular moves that no one else does have been rewarded by the judges in the past, watch for Evans reverse move. He was incredible flying over a double van stack in reverse during the Silverdome Jam. You know he is going to do something in reverse, and almost no one else will. What he hits in reverse, and how well he pulls the move off will go along way to determining his score and setting Destroyer apart from the pack.

12 - 1 Black Smith - A great truck and one of the most talented freestylers in the business. Pablo is another who has been great here in the past but struggled at times to fill the clock. You know he's going to go big, it may again just be a challenge of making the run fill the clock.

15 - 1 Gunslinger - Scott is likely to give us moments to remember as well. His leap a couple of years ago over the huge mountain in the middle of the floor is one I'll never forget. He'll be strong but in this field a top five will be a great accomplishment for the Gunslinger, and he is certainly capable of getting there.

18 - 1 King Krunch - This event is just so difficult to judge, but if you look only at the criteria the judges start the night with Smith's run in Las Vegas last year was as good as any. One of the few to fill the clock, King Krunch hit just about everything on the track and did it with style. If he can repeat the run from last year and add in one or two more spectacular moves this could be the surprise score of the night.

20 - 1 Scarlet Bandit - Dawn has been great in freestyle this year, and while she hasn't competed here before she has been on her husband's team and seen it all here first hand for the last several years. It has got to be different looking at these unbelievable obstacles from the drivers seat, though. Expect her to make an impression and give it everything she's got, probably strong enough to finish in top half of the field.

25 - 1 An Escalade - Balhan has a special flair and he really excites the teens in the audience with his style and attitude. He'll take all that into freestyle driving this hot looking truck. Having never tackled a course like this before, though, this will be a learning experience. Let me say this. I think that one day Balhan will leave Las Vegas as a World Champion. I just don't think it will be this time.

30 - 1 Brutus - Grab on to your seat when Brutus comes out because this will be one wild ride. As I noted earlier Brutus has provided some crazy thrills almost each time out and he will go for it again, but he tends to start off with something insane right off the bat and rarely makes it through the full clock. Not likely to win, but he is likely to provide some of the night's biggest thrills.

35 - 1 Superman - Fortune is another that gets so geared up when he hits the track that something phenomenal is going to happen, but more than likely it'll happen early and the truck won't be around for the full two minutes. Still, keep your eyes on Fortune. I think he is the most improved driver in the sport this season.

40 - 1 Power Forward - I haven't gotten the chance to see Krmel freestyle in years, so I just have to take a guess here. He's a veteran but hasn't ever competed on a track with this many huge obstacles on it, so like all of the newcomers, this will be a great learning experience for future opportunities at the World Finals.

45 - 1 Pastrana 199 - I know I risk looking bad here again. Cohen is clearly one of the rising stars in the sport, but not knowing the truck and being aware that Cohen, while on the rise, is still some time away from making it to the top of the monster food chain, I have to rate him as a real long shot on this course, against this field.

There you have it, the odds, from 1 through 20, on the biggest and greatest field ever to compete for the world championship.

To summarize, based on my odds:
Projected racing final four: Maximum Destruction, Grave Digger, Bounty Hunter, Black Smith
Projected championship race match-up: Maximum Destruction vs. Grave Digger
Projected racing World Champion: Tom Meents, Maximum Destruction
Most likely trucks not among the projected final four to make the semifinals: Gunslinger, Superman

Projected freestyle World Champion: Dennis Anderson, Grave Digger
Projected freestyle top five finishers: Grave Digger, Maximum Destruction, Madusa, Avenger, El Toro Loco
Most likely trucks not projected into the top five to make it into the top five: Hot Wheels, Monster Mutt, Bounty Hunter

The bottom line: yes there is more parity in Monster Jam than ever before, more competitors have elevated their games to championship levels than ever before, and this is the greatest field top to bottom of monster trucks and drivers ever to compete in one event in the history of monster truck racing and freestyle. But if everyone is on, it will be Tom Meents and Dennis Anderson who leave Las Vegas as World Champions. The rest of the field is nipping at their heels so closely, though, neither of them can afford to make any mistakes. Any bobbles or problems for the big two and my odds go right out the window, because then it really will be anybody's game. That's what makes this event the most exciting night of them all.

Now it's on to Las Vegas for the greatest event in the world of the monsters, the Monster Jam World Finals. Let the games begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



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