As we head to
Las Vegas and the crowning of the new champions at the Monster Jam World Finals
the time is here for my annual preview of the biggest event in the sport in
true Vegas style, my version of the odds on each truck's chances. For those
of you who have followed this column in previous years you are aware that,
again this year, these odds are "for recreational purposes only".
Before we get
to the numbers, we should go over a couple of notes. First, in determining
these "morning line" odds two factors weigh heavier than any others
in my ratings: previous Vegas experience and results from this year's dome
and stadium events, especially those on the Speed Channel circuit. Using these
two criteria has worked pretty well in the past. Reviewing the odds from the
past few years, while I always seem to miss badly on a couple of the competitors,
the odds have been fairly accurate. For example last year I had Dennis Anderson
and Grave Digger at 2 to 1 in racing, the second choice behind only the Bounty
Hunter and I noted that it was Anderson's best opportunity ever to claim that
elusive championship that he went on to win. In freestyle all three of the
trucks that tied for the title were in my top five in the pre race odds and
I even wrote that I thought a tie was likely, although the tie I was predicting
was Grave Digger and Maximum Destruction. I point this out as a warning. Since
I've been pretty close each of the last few years, I'm perfectly set up to
look ridiculous this year! With that said, it's time to take the plunge and
test my one time a year handicapping skills and set the odds for this year's
Monster Jam World Finals.
MONSTER JAM
WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS: RACING
9 - 5 Maximum
Destruction, Tom Meents - The parity now in the sport is incredible, and this
will be not only the largest, but also the greatest, most balanced field ever
in Vegas. As the trucks throughout the sport keep elevating their game, the
big two keep responding and raising the bar, so while the competition will
be wide open, Maximum Destruction and Grave Digger are clearly the favorites.
Tom gets the nod as the top choice for several reasons, all based in stats.
Meents has the best individual record of them all in racing during the World
Finals, with 15 wins and only two losses in his career at Sam Boyd Stadium.
In individual round races on the Speed shows this year Meents has a record
of 21 wins and only 2 losses. Maybe more significantly he has beaten Anderson
all three times they've met this year, so Max-D is the pick to win a fourth
racing title, and seventh overall championship at this year's World Finals.
2 - 1 Grave Digger,
Dennis Anderson - It is very hard not to make the icon the favorite. He finally
got the Vegas monkey off of his back last year and returns to defend the title
as strong as ever. Of the 12 racing events on the Speed Channel series this
season Meents has won 5 and Anderson has been on the stage at 4 of them, so
75% of the time one of those two has been the event winner. It should be the
same here, and while Tom rates as the favorite it is by a very slim margin
over Anderson. Dennis should be right there all night and may just make it
two world titles in a row. One additional stat: Dennis is the winningest driver
in round racing on the Speed Channel series this year with a record of 30
wins and 7 losses.
7 - 2 Bounty
Hunter, Jimmy Creten - Creten has been struggling much of this year, but talking
with Jimmy in the Silverdome he told me that after experimenting with several
new parts and set-ups, they've basically gone back to the ways that have made
this team so successful in recent years. He then backed that up in Detroit,
making it to the finals and beating Anderson in a great semifinal race before
losing to Meents in the finale. That had me refiguring the odds quickly and
moving Bounty Hunter back up the list as one of the top choices. Remember,
Creten is the only driver to put his truck into the final four at Sam Boyd
Stadium in each of the last three World Finals, and I expect him to do it
again this year.
4 - 1 Black Smith,
Pablo Huffaker - Like Creten, Pablo has made it to the top of the mountain
in Nevada but just didn't get all the way over it, finishing in the runner-up
spot a year ago. Huffaker always excels on this stage, and he should have
Black Smith advancing deep into the night, probably another appearance in
the final four. And if you can make it to the semifinals, anything can happen.
You have to figure Black Smith will be in the mix for the championship.
9 - 2 Gunslinger,
Scott Hartsock - Hartsock has been up and down again this season, but at his
best he can beat anyone, and I mean anyone, in this field. He's been here
before; he's made it to the finals before, and joins Huffaker as the only
racers who have beaten Meents previously at the World Finals. If he brings
his "A" game he'll be a player here.
5 - 1 Superman,
Chad Fortune - Having Fortune this high will surprise some people, but Chad
has quietly had an outstanding year in one of the newest machines on the circuit.
He has grown as a driver tremendously; has lots of Vegas experience; and he
has great equipment that is now prepared for him by Ron "R. L."
Arace, perhaps the best Crew Chief in the sport. By the way Fortune is the
only driver not named Anderson or Meents who has recorded double figures in
wins on Speed this season, posting a 10 and 7 slate in round racing. As long
as he qualifies well and avoids an early match-up against one of the big guns
expect Superman to be around for a while in Las Vegas.
7 - 1 Blue Thunder,
Tony Farrell - Similar to another top Ford superstar, Hartsock, Farrell won't
surprise me if he makes it to the semis. But is also won't shock me if he
is eliminated early. Consistency is the key for Blue Thunder. It's a great
truck with a talented, experienced driver, a combination that could shake
things up.
10 - 1 Madusa,
Madusa - One of the co-World Champions in freestyle, Madusa continues to elevate
her game in racing and is someone everyone wants to avoid having to race early
in the event. She seems to step up a little further each year so pulling a
major upset and slipping into the final four is not out of the question.
12 - 1 An Escalade,
George Balhan - Former Rookie Of The Year Balhan has never raced in Las Vegas
before, which is one of the major factors I look at in setting the odds. But
this young superstar loves the spotlight and is a very strong racer. He's
made the finals in stadium events before in both the Turtle and Blue Thunder,
so watch for this shiny new machine to win some races. As it is with most
except the top three or four, though, qualifying well is key for Balhan to
advance through the bracket's early rounds.
15 - 1 Monster
Mutt, Bobby Z - Vegas experience makes the Monster Mutt dangerous. Bobby has
made statements here before and could do it again, but it's unlikely he'll
be able to get to the final couple of rounds. I think he'll be a bigger contender
in freestyle.
17 - 1 Pastrana
199, Paul Cohen - Tough one to call here, since I have not seen the truck.
Cohen did impress everyone with his strong qualifying run last year before
losing early. Again, the previous experience on this unique track will help
this rising star immensely.
18 - 1 Hot Wheels,
Phil Foster - The number two Maximum Destruction team driver gets the opportunity
to compete in his first World Finals, and he deserves it. Foster is a marvelous
talent, but here the lack of Vegas experience makes him a long shot.
20 - 1 Avenger,
Jim Koehler - Very simply put the 2003 World Freestyle Champion will be hard
to beat and can win some early round races. But Jim Koehler is coming to Las
Vegas to try and reclaim the freestyle title.
22 - 1 Scarlet
Bandit, Dawn Creten - Most of the people that I've talked to in the sport
are absolutely thrilled that Dawn has earned her first invitation to the World
Finals. She richly deserves this. She has won a major stadium event this year
and has that huge Creten horsepower going for her, but the first time out
on this course is tough for anyone.
25 - 1 Black
Stallion, Michael Vaters - The veteran has been here before, so he has that
crucial Vegas experience. Still it's difficult to expect Vaters to be a major
player on this track since he still spends most of the year on the popular
Thunder Nationals circuit and rarely gets to race on a huge stadium course.
30 - 1 Destroyer,
Dan Evans - Great to see Air Man Dan back in Vegas after barely missing the
cut the last couple of seasons. Evans hasn't had lots of racing success this
season. Most of his highlights this season have come in freestyle and that
is probably where they'll come again in Las Vegas.
35 - 1 El Toro
Loco, Lupe Soza - Soza puts a lot into his racing effort, don't get me wrong,
but Lupe is really all about freestyle. He's not had much racing success in
most of the stadium events I've seen, and more than anything else he is in
Las Vegas to defend his piece of the world title.
40 - 1 King Krunch,
David Smith - It seems really strange to have Smith rated this low in racing
since he is a top contender where ever he runs on a week to week basis. Simply
put King Krunch is a top-level machine, and his odds being this high is simply
a testament to the top to bottom quality of this field.
45 - 1 Brutus,
Chris Bergeron - Bergeron is another driver getting his first opportunity
in the World Finals, and what's interesting is that he took advantage of the
open track time that USHRA officials allowed after last year's qualifying
and actually did test his truck flying down "Thunder Alley". I just
don't think a test run makes up for not having Vegas racing experience. I'll
say this though, racing or freestyle, don't blink when Brutus is on the track.
Bergeron has provided some of this year's most spectacular moments.
50 - 1 Power
Forward, Frank Krmel - Again, it's only because of the quality of this field
and the lack on any experience on this racecourse that Krmel's odds are so
high.
MONSTER JAM
WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS: FREESTYLE
2 - 1 Grave Digger
- I guess this is a bit ironic. I've made one of the freestyle champions the
racing favorite and now I'm making the defending racing champ the freestyle
favorite. Anderson has been on a roll of late and he is filling the time clock,
which is a key here. And if Anderson does not successfully defend his racing
title he'll be even more motivated (if that's possible) to win the freestyle
crown. In his twenty-third year he is still the man to beat. Stat note: in
the 12 Speed Channel freestyle competitions this year Anderson has five wins,
and Meents has five wins!
5 - 2 Maximum
Destruction - I'll say here what I've said in the past: if Meents follows
his own advice he's right at the top and could win another freestyle title.
That advice being that Meents feels that in the first minute of the expanded
two minute time frame in Las Vegas you have to pace yourself, hitting the
obstacles and getting the big air, but saving the most spectacular moments
for the last 60 seconds. That's what he says, but the last two years he just
has not been able to resist attacking the camper on the flat bed trailer early
on, and it has damaged his truck both times. If Meents saves the camper for
the end of the run he could be headed for yet another piece of the gold.
3 - 1 Madusa
- The only female to have ever won a Monster Jam World Championship is back
to defend her share of the crown. This track is so difficult not just because
of the type of obstacles on the course, but also because there are so many
of them. Trucks often don't have time to recover from one move before they
are on top of the next obstacle. Yet this is where Madusa sometimes excels.
She's one of the best in the business at combinations, flowing from one move
right into the next, and that talent makes her a legitimate threat to win
the whole shooting match again this year.
7 - 2 Avenger
- Jim Koehler thought a second straight title was his last year when he came
out onto the floor with a 31 (out of a possible 40) on the board as the top
score. Then the truck broke right off the bat, and his championship reign
ended. I think Koehler feels like he's been overlooked since he's not the
champ anymore and he is as motivated as I've ever seen. Mr. Excitement will
be on fire in Vegas and is determined to reclaim the title. I wouldn't bet
against him which is why I have Avenger among the favorites again.
9 - 2 El Toro
Loco - Some observers thought that Soza won in 2003. Then he got a share of
the title in 2004. Now the motivation is to establish himself as the best,
to defend the title and win it outright this year. The Vegas stage plays well
for El Toro Loco, since the judges have rewarded the most spectacular moves
with the highest scores. And every time out in Las Vegas Soza always has at
least one of those "Wow" moves that you never forget, and I'm confident
he'll have another this time out.
5 - 1 Hot Wheels
- As we've talked about on television, Foster is the Valedictorian of the
Tom Meents School of Monster Trucks. He will turn the crowd on with a huge
air assault, and I think he is a dark horse pick to win the whole thing if
the big guns struggle.
6 - 1 Monster
Mutt - This truck was made to freestyle, and the driver has that freestyle
mentality. Aside from those "Wow" moments that helped Madusa and
El Toro win last year, the most spectacular single move at last year's World
Finals was Bobby's incredible leap over the rock pile. It remains one of the
most breathtaking leaps in the sport's history. Will he do it again? Bet on
it, but he needs to save it for the final seconds of the run to end with the
ultimate exclamation point.
7 - 1 Bounty
Hunter - Boy did I miss badly on Bounty in this column a year ago. Knowing
that Jimmy was the favorite to win the racing title I rated Bounty Hunter
with very high odds in freestyle, way in the back of the pack. Then he almost
won the freestyle a year ago. Remember, the winning score last year was 31,
and Creten scored 30. He may not be the favorite here, but he's a great dark
horse pick. I except Bounty Hunter will be awesome in freestyle and will score
very well, maybe even well enough to win it all.
8 - 1 Black Stallion
- Here is where Vaters should shine. His experience plays well in freestyle,
and the lack of stadium runs this year is not a big negative for him. He's
been here before, knows what to expect, and he will go for it.
10 - 1 Blue Thunder
- Tony has to make sure he uses the clock, as does everyone. It's just that
Farrell is one of these drivers who absolutely attacks freestyle, and when
you go huge right off the bat on this course you run the risk of your truck
not lasting very long.
11 - 1 Destroyer
- Make no mistake about, Evans earned his return to Las Vegas with his fantastic
freestyles this year. Keeping in mind that the most spectacular moves that
no one else does have been rewarded by the judges in the past, watch for Evans
reverse move. He was incredible flying over a double van stack in reverse
during the Silverdome Jam. You know he is going to do something in reverse,
and almost no one else will. What he hits in reverse, and how well he pulls
the move off will go along way to determining his score and setting Destroyer
apart from the pack.
12 - 1 Black
Smith - A great truck and one of the most talented freestylers in the business.
Pablo is another who has been great here in the past but struggled at times
to fill the clock. You know he's going to go big, it may again just be a challenge
of making the run fill the clock.
15 - 1 Gunslinger
- Scott is likely to give us moments to remember as well. His leap a couple
of years ago over the huge mountain in the middle of the floor is one I'll
never forget. He'll be strong but in this field a top five will be a great
accomplishment for the Gunslinger, and he is certainly capable of getting
there.
18 - 1 King Krunch
- This event is just so difficult to judge, but if you look only at the criteria
the judges start the night with Smith's run in Las Vegas last year was as
good as any. One of the few to fill the clock, King Krunch hit just about
everything on the track and did it with style. If he can repeat the run from
last year and add in one or two more spectacular moves this could be the surprise
score of the night.
20 - 1 Scarlet
Bandit - Dawn has been great in freestyle this year, and while she hasn't
competed here before she has been on her husband's team and seen it all here
first hand for the last several years. It has got to be different looking
at these unbelievable obstacles from the drivers seat, though. Expect her
to make an impression and give it everything she's got, probably strong enough
to finish in top half of the field.
25 - 1 An Escalade
- Balhan has a special flair and he really excites the teens in the audience
with his style and attitude. He'll take all that into freestyle driving this
hot looking truck. Having never tackled a course like this before, though,
this will be a learning experience. Let me say this. I think that one day
Balhan will leave Las Vegas as a World Champion. I just don't think it will
be this time.
30 - 1 Brutus
- Grab on to your seat when Brutus comes out because this will be one wild
ride. As I noted earlier Brutus has provided some crazy thrills almost each
time out and he will go for it again, but he tends to start off with something
insane right off the bat and rarely makes it through the full clock. Not likely
to win, but he is likely to provide some of the night's biggest thrills.
35 - 1 Superman
- Fortune is another that gets so geared up when he hits the track that something
phenomenal is going to happen, but more than likely it'll happen early and
the truck won't be around for the full two minutes. Still, keep your eyes
on Fortune. I think he is the most improved driver in the sport this season.
40 - 1 Power
Forward - I haven't gotten the chance to see Krmel freestyle in years, so
I just have to take a guess here. He's a veteran but hasn't ever competed
on a track with this many huge obstacles on it, so like all of the newcomers,
this will be a great learning experience for future opportunities at the World
Finals.
45 - 1 Pastrana
199 - I know I risk looking bad here again. Cohen is clearly one of the rising
stars in the sport, but not knowing the truck and being aware that Cohen,
while on the rise, is still some time away from making it to the top of the
monster food chain, I have to rate him as a real long shot on this course,
against this field.
There you have
it, the odds, from 1 through 20, on the biggest and greatest field ever to
compete for the world championship.
To summarize, based on my odds:
Projected
racing final four: Maximum Destruction, Grave Digger, Bounty Hunter, Black
Smith
Projected championship race match-up: Maximum Destruction vs. Grave Digger
Projected racing World Champion: Tom Meents, Maximum Destruction
Most likely trucks not among the projected final four to make the semifinals:
Gunslinger, Superman
Projected freestyle
World Champion: Dennis Anderson, Grave Digger
Projected freestyle top five finishers: Grave Digger, Maximum Destruction,
Madusa, Avenger, El Toro Loco
Most likely trucks not projected into the top five to make it into the top
five: Hot Wheels, Monster Mutt, Bounty Hunter
The bottom line:
yes there is more parity in Monster Jam than ever before, more competitors
have elevated their games to championship levels than ever before, and this
is the greatest field top to bottom of monster trucks and drivers ever to
compete in one event in the history of monster truck racing and freestyle.
But if everyone is on, it will be Tom Meents and Dennis Anderson who leave
Las Vegas as World Champions. The rest of the field is nipping at their heels
so closely, though, neither of them can afford to make any mistakes. Any bobbles
or problems for the big two and my odds go right out the window, because then
it really will be anybody's game. That's what makes this event the most exciting
night of them all.
Now it's on to
Las Vegas for the greatest event in the world of the monsters, the Monster
Jam World Finals. Let the games begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!