The time has finally arrived! The field is set for the biggest, and what is
sure to be the greatest, Monster Jam World Finals ever. So the time has come
once again for me to put my amateur handicapping skills to work and rate the
entire field with my annual pre-World Finals odds column.
As you examine the odds that I'm placing on each World Finals competitor in
racing and freestyle, here are a couple of things to keep in mind for any disagreements
you may have with my ratings. First, I keep statistics all year and update the
projected odds from the beginning of January until now, and one of the biggest
factors that affects the odds is how each driver performs in stadium and dome
events during the winter months leading up to the "Big One". I've
found that a racer who excels in places like the Georgia Dome and Raymond James
Stadium is most likely to succeed on the sports toughest and fastest racecourse
at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. Likewise in freestyle, it's the performers
who master the huge obstacles placed in facilities like Ford Field and Reliant
Stadium that are best equipped to step up to the treacherous World Finals freestyle
course. Also note that I believe strongly in momentum, so wins in February and
March tend to weigh heavier than those that come at the start of the season.
The second major factor in setting these odds involves previous success in
the World Finals. This event is so unique: from the one of a kind chicane; to
the highest racing speeds of the year; to the size and number of freestyle obstacles,
that previous experience at Sam Boyd Stadium is more important in this event
than any other, and those who have won or scored well in Las Vegas in the past
are the most likely to do it again.
Keep in mind that these odds are not necessarily my personal picks. They are
based on the statistics and performances I've witnessed at previous World Finals
and during this year's stadium events. So here we go! And as I always point
out before starting, remember that these odds are meant for "recreational
purposes only".
MONSTER JAM WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS
RACING
8 - 5 BOUNTY HUNTER (JIM CRETEN) - For the second time in the last three
years Jimmy Creten enters Las Vegas as the favorite to win the racing championship.
He may not be happy about that since my tabbing him as the top pick has yet
to pay off with a racing crown, but there is no disputing Bounty Hunter's credentials.
Creten rates as the top choice based on both 2006 momentum and previous World
Finals success. Bounty Hunter beat all the top guns to win the racing at Minneapolis
and St. Louis late last month, so there is your momentum. And while he has come
up short in trying to win the World Racing Championship previously, make no
mistake about it, Bounty Hunter is awesome in Sam Boyd Stadium. Creten will
look to extend his unmatched streak of four straight appearances in the World
Finals "Final Four", and it will be a real shock if he doesn't get
to the semifinals again this year. He traditionally qualifies well, a big key
to success in Las Vegas. Last year you may remember that he was the number one
qualifier. He also may have eased the personal pressure he puts on himself to
win the racing title when he won last year's World Freestyle Championship. He
is a World Champion. This may be the year that he becomes the World Racing Champion,
too.
2 - 1 MAXIMUM DESTRUCTION (TOM MEENTS) - Meents has the best won-loss
record in the sport at Sam Boyd Stadium over the years (15 wins and 3 losses),
and he has won three stadium events this year, so the sport's only six-time
World Champion has both the Vegas success and 2006 stadium triumphs as factors
on his side. He is the second choice in the morning line odds based on head-to-head
results this season. Meents has not lost to the third choice in the odds: Maximum
Destruction with Meents behind the wheel has beaten Iron Outlaw both times they've
raced this year in a stadium event. The flip side to that coin is that Max-D
is winless this season on the big tracks against Bounty Hunter. Meents is 0
and 3 straight up against Creten this season, another factor that makes Creten
a slight favorite over Meents. A factor to keep in mind though, is that these
two superstars have only raced each other one other time at the World Finals,
with Meents winning that race to claim the 2002 World Racing Championship.
7 - 2 IRON OUTLAW (LINSEY WEENK) - Never have I had a Vegas rookie rated
this highly, but never has a newcomer burst onto the scene like Linsey Weenk
has this year. From starting the season with an unheard of 19 race win streak
in round racing, to his 6 stadium racing event titles this season, culminating
with his triumph at the last pre-World Finals stadium event March 4th at Ford
Field in Detroit, Weenk is a legitimate threat to become the first ever to win
the World Racing Finals on his first try since the event began. One of the most
impressive things about Weenk is his poise. While showing respect to the all-time
greats, he is not intimidated by any of them, and this is key. Case in point:
Weenk is undefeated racing against Dennis Anderson in stadium events this season.
Weenk does not beat himself with mistakes or penalties. To beat him, the opponent
has to outrace him, and with the equipment Creten gives him that's tough to
do. The Friday night practice and qualifying session will be more important
to the Iron Outlaw team than anyone else. It's there, during "Double Down"
Friday night that the sport's newest superstar gets several chances to dial
in his big Ford before Showtime. Qualifying is key to everyone, but I think
more so to Weenk this year. Iron Outlaw needs to get one of the top seeds and
avoid the other top contenders in the early rounds as he continues to figure
out the course.
4 - 1 GRAVE DIGGER (DENNIS ANDERSON) - The 2004 World Racing Champion
remains near the top, and is again one of the major contenders to take the crown.
It is interesting to note that if Anderson makes it to the final race this year
it will be his third consecutive berth in the championship race, a feat that
has only been accomplished in the past by Meents, who was in the finale, and
won the title, each year from 2000 to 2002. The icon's new ride, Grave Digger
XX, is undergoing a complete overhaul including a brand new engine for the World
Finals, so expect Anderson to be among the top qualifiers and a player throughout
the night. He can beat anybody in this field, and has supreme confidence, finally,
in Las Vegas based on his success the last two seasons. It is a concern, though,
that he did not win any Speed televised racing events this season, and his win
in San Antonio is his only big track victory in '06. Maybe he's just saving
the best for last.
9 - 2 BLACKSMITH (PABLO HUFFAKER) - Huffaker will surprise no one if
he wins the World Racing Championship. He made it all the way to the finals
in 2004 and was back in the semifinals again last season. Pablo knows how to
get his Willys down Thunder Alley at max speed and then nail the turn. He is
outstanding on this course and has always been among the top big track racers
in the sport. History says, though, that Black Smith needs to draw into the
bracket away from Grave Digger, since Anderson has eliminated his long time
Team Grave Digger associate in each of the last two World Finals.
Writer's Note: It should be pointed out that only one time (in 2005) has a
truck won the World Racing Championship with odds longer than 9 to 2. So if
that trend holds up this year anyone who's odds are 5 to 1 or higher is not
likely to win the title, meaning that if the tradition stands up again this
year, either Jimmy Creten, Tom Meents, Linsey Weenk, Dennis Anderson, or Pablo
Huffaker will be leaving Las Vegas as the 2006 World Racing Champion. Now, back
to the odds for the rest of the field.
5 - 1 ESCALADE (GEORGE BALHAN) - If the above noted tradition is to
be broken again this year and someone with odds of 5 to 1 or higher is to win
the title, then George Balhan is the most likely to do it. Balhan actually had
the fourth best qualifying time last year at the World Finals but pre-race seeding
gave him an extremely unfavorable draw, something he may be able to avoid this
year. Here you have a rising star with Las Vegas experience under his belt.
Balhan also is one of those personalities that loves the spotlight and has been
known to rise to the occasion at big moments, and there is no moment bigger
than this.
8 - 1 BLUE THUNDER (TONY FARRELL) - The Built Ford Tough Blue Thunder
team comes into the big show as a serious threat to make it to the final four,
and if you can get that far, then anything is possible. Farrell and Crew Chief
Mike Wine seem to be more in sync than ever and Tony has lots of Sam Boyd Stadium
experience, so Blue Thunder rates as a legitimate threat in this competition.
10 - 1 KING KRUNCH (DAVID SMITH) - You have to list Smith near the top
of the odds based on his breakthrough success at the 2005 World Finals where
he made it all the way into the semifinals. Lots going for this team here, most
notably that Vegas experience factor. King Krunch has excelled here before and
unless the draw is terrible, can be expected to grab a couple of early wins
this time as well. And as we all know, in this huge field just survive round
to round and anything can happen.
12 - 1 SUPERMAN (CHAD FORTUNE) - Here it is all about the team. Fortune,
with his team sports background, understands listening to his coach and executing.
His coach just happens to be one of the best crew chiefs in the business, and
R.L. Arace has shown that he knows how to prepare a truck for the Sam Boyd Stadium
racetrack. Fortune has the experience of several previous World Finals berths,
but has never had great success here. Maybe this is the year that the Vegas
practice pays off for Fortune and Superman.
15 - 1 EL TORO LOCO (LUPE SOZA) - The former World Freestyle Champion
is coming off, arguably, his best racing season ever. Soza has taken advantage
of a busy fall racing schedule as part of the Monster Jam European Tour, where
he won several events overseas, and parlayed that active fall into a successful
winter. Lupe hit the ground running at the start of the New Year and because
of his Europe duty he didn't have to shake off any off-season rust. The result
has been El Toro's best year in the racing half of the sport and it's Lupe's
best chance ever to grab some wins and shake up the racing bracket in Las Vegas.
18 - 1 HOT WHEELS (NEIL ELLIOTT) - Frankly the odds on Elliott should
be lots lower based on his talent and equipment, but he was out of the sport
for a year and has only competed in a few of the high profile events this year
so the odds are higher than would normally be expected. The other factor that
works against Elliott is that he drives the number two truck for Team Meents,
and that team's clear number one goal is to see Tom back on stage with another
world title. Let me say this. If these numbers were being used for actual wagering,
I'd be getting a few bucks down on Elliott in Hot Wheels as my long shot pick.
20 - 1 AIR FORCE AFTERBURNER (PAUL COHEN) - Cohen has raced here before
and frankly he gets around this course quite well. Our first look at this truck,
representing the Air Force, at the World Finals, and I know how much it means
to Cohen, and to the airmen and women supporting him, to win some races here.
Expect him to do just that, but a final four berth in this field will be a real
surprise.
20 - 1 PREDATOR (ALLEN PEZO) - One of the most experienced shoe's in
the business, here's a driver who seems to pull out a huge surprise when you
least expect it. Pezo understands the survive and advance strategy, so all he
needs is a strong qualifying run and a good draw and he might last in this race
bracket for quite a while. The odds are a little long here, but Predator is
a truck that has won major stadium events in the past. Don't count this veteran
out too early.
25 - 1 DEL SCORCHO (FRANK KRMEL) - The truck is new to the World Finals,
but not the driver. Krmel is one of these up and comers who has been willing
to jump in any truck, any time, to get the necessary seat time to get stronger
in this sport, and it's paid off with an outstanding ride for him to roar into
Las Vegas with. A real long shot, yes, but another one that it won't surprise
me if he can win a couple of races early on.
25 - 1 BRUTUS (CHRIS BERGERON) - There is Vegas experience here, however
this is not a track that allows you to go over that ragged edge and get away
with it. Believe me, no one keeps their truck on the ragged edge in racing more
than Bergeron. The truck is fast and Bergeron is fearless, so some wins early
on are a possibility. It's just that one thing is certain with Chris Bergeron
and Brutus: at some point something spectacular is going to happen, and in racing
that's not necessarily a good thing.
30 - 1 AVENGER (JIM KOEHLER) - Jim might totally disagree with me on
this, but I think since he won the World Freestyle Championship in 2003 his
total focus has been on grabbing another freestyle crown. Sure Koehler wants
to wins races and he'd love to shake up the racing bracket, but I'm saying that
as soon as the 57 Chevy rolls off the truck in Vegas Koehler's main focus will
be on winning the freestyle title. Thus his odds are long here. Avenger fans,
keep reading though. The odds on Avenger get a whole lot more favorable in freestyle.
30 - 1 DESTROYER (DAN EVANS) - Another truck and driver with lots of
Vegas experience, but not a lot of racing success here. Evans has won some early
round races here before and will probably do so again, especially if he gets
a decent draw. But making it to the semifinals would be a surprise, albeit a
great accomplishment. Unlike my thoughts above on Koehler, I expect Evans to
focus on racing and try every trick in the book to win races, but like Koehler,
it's probable that Air Man Dan's greatest success at the World Finals will again
come in freestyle.
35 - 1 TEAM SUZUKI (KATHY WINSTON) - I feel like this rating is kind
of taking a stab in the dark since due to the scheduling I haven't seen Kathy
in action all year. I do know, however, that she has raced here before, so she
won't be intimidated by the course. She's been busy all winter, and nothing
elevates your game more than seat time, and tracking results at other events
I know that she has had more racing success this year than ever before. So an
early upset win or two is a realistic expectation here.
40 - 1 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLE (RANDY BROWN) - It gets tough now.
I'm about to assign very long odds on some of the sport's most talented drivers,
all in great trucks, and I'm sure I'll hear about how crazy I am to have several
of these next competitors rated this low. However, I have seen year after year
that Vegas rookies, no matter how strong they are elsewhere, struggle their
first time here. That's why Randy Brown, a phenomenal Team Grave Digger driver
is a real long shot in racing. Jumping into a different truck and trying to
get used to new sight lines on this track also doesn't help his chances. That
said, it is awesome to see Randy Brown, who has been such a top-level racer
and freestyler for years finally get a berth in the Monster Jam World Finals.
40 - 1 MONSTER MUTT (CHARLIE PAUKEN) - Pretty much ditto my comments
on Randy Brown in assessing the popular driver many call "Chucky".
The absolute best thing here is that another driver who has thrilled so many
fans in so many different trucks for so many years, Charlie Pauken, is deservedly
in the World Finals field. Unfortunately though he is in one of the most difficult
trucks to race. The visibility on the chop top Merc is so restricted that Pauken
is really going to have take advantage of Friday's night's practice and qualifying
to make sure that he can hit his marks perfectly at race time.
40 - 1 PASTRANA 199 (CHAD TINGLER) - The driver is a Vegas newcomer
so the odds are long, but watch out for the Pastrana 199 truck, especially when
you're trying to pick early round upsets. This team might get it done. Some
late season changes mean that Tingler's truck is actually being prepared by
the current World Racing Championship Crew Chief, so Pastrana 199 is actually
a teammate to Superman at the finals and that can do nothing but increase Tingler's
chances of being one of this year's biggest surprises.
45 - 1 BATMAN (JASON CHILDRESS) - Childress is a star of the future
in this sport, and has already recorded one of the year's biggest upsets when
he ended Iron Outlaw's 19 race winning streak. It is a cool truck that people
love, and a popular new driver who knows how to talk the talk with the fans
and in interviews, then backs it up most of the time by walking the walk at
event time. A contender to win in racing everywhere else, but a Vegas rookie
in a truck that has never been raced before at Sam Boyd Stadium, especially
a concept truck, is not likely to take the championship. Maybe in a year or
two, but this year is expected to be a learning experience for Childress and
the Batman team.
45 - 1 SAFE AUTO MINIMIZER (MARC MCDONALD) - Another ditto here. The
things I wrote about Childress and Batman can also be said about McDonald and
the Safe Auto sponsored ride. I've been very impressed with what I've seen so
far from this new truck/driver combo, and I expect that they will be a major
player in every other event they enter. But in this incredible 24-truck field,
and on the fastest track in the sport, this is more of an opportunity for McDonald
to gain some great experience.
50 - 1 TAZ (ADAM ANDERSON) - Please, please, don't start the hate mail
yet. I can hear the Anderson fans (his Dad's fans included) saying "how
dare you have Adam at the bottom of the list?". Here's the answer. Every
factor that weighs into making the odds works against Adam in this event. No
previous Las Vegas experience; a concept truck that can present some issues
on the racecourse; and a lack of stadium racing success this year. Not to mention
that he is by far the youngest driver in the field, and this is a sport where
age and experience usually matter. All that adds up to long racing odds. That
said, Adam has shown us this year that the sport is in his blood, he will become
a major superstar, and he's going to be at the top for a long time to come.
He will be back in Las Vegas many times in the future with a legitimate chance
to win the World Racing Championship, but it's just too early to expect it this
time. But that's in racing. You will see a whole different set of odds and factors
included a little further on in this column when we assess Adam Anderson and
Taz's freestyle chances.
MONSTER JAM WORLD FINALS MORNING LINE ODDS
FREESTYLE
6 - 5 MAXIMUM DESTRUCTION (TOM MEENTS) - Here we go again. Picking a
favorite in the Monster Jam World Finals freestyle competition between Tom Meents
and Dennis Anderson is like asking me if I prefer a strawberry milk shake or
a chocolate one. They're both great. And this year the stats are almost dead
even. Both have won four stadium freestyle competitions this season, more than
anyone else. So I've found two tidbits that give Maximum Destruction the slight
edge here. First, look at the standings in freestyle in all of the stadium events
this year. Don't compare scores, because the judges' numbers vary city to city:
some judges give higher scores, some lower. The same freestyle may get a 21
in one stadium and a 29 next week in a dome across the country. But look at
the order of finish. This year in all of the stadium freestyles Meents' average
finish has been 2.0. So he has four wins, and overall Max-D averages a second
place finish per event, meaning that even when he hasn't won he has been right
there. Anderson's average ranking, on the other hand, has been 3.67, second
best among all competitors who have been in three or more stadium events, but
not quite as good as Meents. Then there is the Vegas factor. Tom has won three
Monster Jam World Freestyle Championships at Las Vegas to Dennis' one. It's
a close call, but Maximum Destruction enters the 2006 Monster Jam World Finals
as the freestyle favorite.
7 - 5 GRAVE DIGGER (DENNIS ANDERSON) - The icon is set up perfectly
to make a run at a second freestyle title, a crown that has eluded him since
2000. He's had a brilliant season, and as noted above equaled Meents for most
wins. The equipment let him down the last time out in Detroit where a broken
oil pump knocked him out of the competition, but Grave Digger XX will be totally
put back together with the newest pieces and the latest technology for the finals,
so Digger will be ready. As is always the case at the World Finals clock management
is the key. You absolutely have to fill the clock to win the title. If Grave
Digger lasts the full time he will be hard to beat.
3 - 1 BOUNTY HUNTER (JIM CRETEN) - For Creten to repeat as the World
Freestyle Champion the formula is as follows: fill the time, and focus on the
things his Ford Expedition does better than anyone else - power wheelies. The
judges at the finals, more than anywhere else, reward the unique moves a truck
can perform that no one else does, or does as well. One of the most awesome
moments at any event is to see the Bounty Hunter from a standing start nail
a huge wheelie and ride it all the way across the floor. Last year Creten won
the title coming out 10th of the 19 trucks that competed, and had to sit in
the hot seat and wait out the rest of the all-star line-up. This year he'll
come out last, knowing what he has to do. That should be an advantage, although
previous history shows that he who performs last at the World Finals rarely
wins. We'll see if Jimmy can change that trend. Only Meents has won back-to-back
freestyle crowns, but Creten is capable of joining him in that exclusive club.
5 - 1 BLUE THUNDER (TONY FARRELL) - Here we are following a Monster
Jam World Finals trend. In recent history you break through and get close one
year, then win the World Championship the next. It has happened in succession
for Avenger, El Toro Loco, and Bounty Hunter. Should that pattern continue then
it is Blue Thunder that seems likely to take the crown. Remember, Tony Farrell
tied Creten's score for the championship last year, but Bounty Hunter won the
world title in the tiebreaker. In any previous year Blue Thunder would have
been a co-champ. The tiebreaker will be back again this year (which most of
us are thrilled about, because there needs to be just one World Champion) so
Farrell needs to find that one extra point. Vegas history says he might do just
that.
6 - 1 AVENGER (JIM KOEHLER) - I think that this has been Koehler's best
year ever in freestyle, and we are talking about a former World Champion here.
His flair for the spectacular and understanding of what it takes to score big
at the World Finals makes Avenger a major candidate to take another title this
year. "Mr. Excitement" will be spectacular. The equipment has to hold
up and he has to fill the clock. If those things happen Jim Koehler is more
than capable of being the second monster driver, joining Meents, to win multiple
freestyle titles.
7 - 1 TAZ (ADAM ANDERSON) - Now here I go out on a limb. Las Vegas rookies
tend to be intimidated by the sheer magnitude of the obstacles that make up
the World Finals freestyle course and many don't last thirty seconds. But this
is not your average rookie. It has become clear that great freestyling must
be in the genes, because Adam Anderson has looked like his father recently,
and has actually beaten Dad and the other top superstars more than once this
season. He has the momentum on his side having won the freestyle competitions
last month in Minneapolis and earlier this month in Detroit. Sure, he could
go out for his first freestyle at the finals and be on his lid in 30 seconds
like other newcomers in the past but I don't expect that to happen. He has shown
us more often than not of late that he knows how to be spectacular and fill
the clock at the same time, which is a recipe for world championships.
8 - 1 KING KRUNCH (DAVID SMITH) - King Krunch is rated this highly based
on the two most important factors that I have been noting in this column: previous
success in Sam Boyd Stadium and stadium moment this season. David Smith followed
up his surprising 2005 racing success with a top five freestyle at last year's
World Finals, and this year he has beaten the big guns when he won the freestyle
competition on the Speed televised event in Reliant Stadium. On this page that
makes a championship contender. Keep this in mind as well. It is rare, in Las
Vegas or anywhere else, that David Smith doesn't fill the clock, and that's
a huge advantage for him here.
10 - 1 EL TORO LOCO (LUPE SOZA) - The bottom line here is that he has
won the freestyle championship before and he can do it again. What is likely
to determine El Toro's finish is the time factor. It's a given that Lupe will
come up with a Wow moment, one of those unbelievable moves that you always remember.
He needs to save that toward the end, though. Making the unforgettable move
that we know he is capable of while using all of the time allotted could send
Soza back to the champ's stage.
10 - 1 BLACKSMITH (PABLO HUFFAKER) - Huffaker has won two stadium freestyles
this season, in Anaheim and Houston. He knows what to expect here, being a fixture
in the World Finals field for the past several seasons. He has been closer to
a title in racing, but has provided some spectacular moments in freestyle over
the years in this venue as well. Like most of the other contenders not named
Meents or Anderson certain things will have to fall into place, but if they
do Blacksmith would not be a shocking name to see on the freestyle championship
trophy.
12 - 1 HOT WHEELS (NEIL ELLIOTT) - Two years ago, when we left Las Vegas
with a three-way I heard from several people who thought the 2004 title actually
should have gone to one driver who wasn't in the three-way tie - Neil Elliott.
Watch out for him here again. He figures to draw very early in the competition,
which was a disadvantage two years ago and could be again this time. But once
he's on the track expect a breathtaking performance. Elliott will deliver the
Team Meents signature sic air and he understands as well as any driver how important
it is to keep the momentum up from start to finish.
15 - 1 MONSTER MUTT (CHARLIE PAUKEN) - Get ready for a Digger style
freestyle in the floppy eared dog this time. The veteran Team Grave Digger driver
will put forth an all out ragged edge effort, and this is a great truck for
freestyle. The Mutt's limited visibility is not nearly as big of an issue in
freestyle as it is in racing, and Pauken has shown the ability over the years
to jump in any truck and freestyle the wheels off of it. Remember that in the
season opener in Montreal Pauken jumped in the Taz truck and tied Meents and
Creten for the top score on another huge floor. My guess is that Chucky will
love freestyling at Sam Boyd Stadium.
15 - 1 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLE (RANDY BROWN) - Another Team Grave
Digger driver taking over a hot concept truck, which means another great freestyle
can be expected. I have no advance knowledge of the order that the trucks will
freestyle in but my guess is that Brown will draw somewhere in the middle, and
traditionally that has been a great place to be for some reason. Just ask Koehler,
Soza, and Creten. This truck always looks great freestyling whoever is behind
the wheel, so putting a talent of Brown's caliber in the cockpit figures to
make this the Turtle's best World Finals ever.
18 - 1 ESCALADE (GEORGE BALHAN) - The depth and strength of this field
just amazes me. Escalade is a contender to win in every event he competes in
yet here I can only put him in the middle of this field. That's how truly amazing
this 24 truck line-up is. Balhan is outstanding and could be ready to make a
major move toward the top here. Each year it seems like there is always a newcomer
or long shot who turns in a personal best and catapults into the limelight as
a future top contender, and I can see Balhan doing that here this time around.
20 - 1 PREDATOR (ALLEN PEZO) - Pezo's experience in the sport, and specifically
in past World Finals makes the Predator a long shot worth keeping an eye on.
Another truck that is popular with the fans and looks great in freestyle, Allen
has done well in Las Vegas before. Again, he's a long shot to win the championship
but don't be surprised if he ends up in the top five at the end of the night.
25 - 1 AIR FORCE AFTERBURNER (PAUL COHEN) - Cohen as noted before has
World Finals experience even though this is a new truck. He also can boast of
a victory in a televised freestyle early this season when he won the first Minneapolis
event of this Speed season while driving the Pastrana 199 truck. He deserves
to be here and can play at this level, but it may take a little more seasoning
before we expect to see Cohen in contention for the World Championship.
25 - 1 DESTROYER (DAN EVANS) - Last year Air Man Dan gave us something
we've never seen before, a beautiful combination in reverse. The down side is
that he'll need to do that again and add in something else we haven't before
experienced to get the big score he's looking for. Evans also needs to come
out strong and keep up that start to finish momentum. If he does this is the
kind of truck and competitor that we've seen shake up the scoring at past championships.
30 - 1 IRON OUTLAW (LINSEY WEENK) - Here's where I think the lack of
Vegas experience catches up to the amazing Canadian. He's been a strong, consistent
freestyler all season, but there is no way to prepare for this course. I can't
say that enough. Experience here is not enough to guarantee success but it is
key to having a shot at the title. So while I think Weenk can overcome the "Vegas
rookie syndrome" in racing, it will be much tougher to do it in freestyle
30 - 1 PASTRANA 199 (CHAD TINGLER) - Rumors have been flying about Travis
Pastrana himself climbing into the truck, which I can't imagine ever happening
in the biggest event of the Monster Jam year. As of this moment though, Tingler
is scheduled to freestyle the truck and is a driver who will be strong, but
has to get used to the biggest and most difficult obstacles that he's ever faced.
35 - 1 BRUTUS (CHRIS BERGERON) - I'd love to make Brutus' odds better
than this and I'm well aware this is the truck that could really makes these
odds look silly. Still, I have to set the odds based on the stats and history,
and what we know most about Bergeron is that he will be spectacular, something
amazing will happen, but he's unlikely that he'll fill the clock. He's all out
all the time and that can get you in trouble here. Don't leave year seat when
Brutus pulls onto the track. This is one Vegas freestyle you do not want to
miss.
35 - 1 SUPERMAN (CHAD FORTUNE) - I like this truck's chances better
in racing than in freestyle, but again, it seems crazy to rate a truck and driver
combo this good this low. As I pointed out before it's a testament to the depth
of this field top to bottom. Fortune has lots of Vegas experience, and if he
can keep his head and fill the clock, while still making all the moves the judges
are looking for he certainly can finish a lot higher than these pre-event odds
have him slotted.
40 - 1 DEL SCORCHO (FRANK KRMEL) - Hard to rank this truck since I haven't
seen it in action. Krmel has some Vegas experience and is a real up and comer.
He may not win but has a great chance to come out with reckless abandon and
continue making his own name in the sport, and put a big smile on his sponsor's
face as well.
45 - 1 BATMAN (JASON CHILDRESS) - Childress has a really cool, popular
piece to work with and figures to be popular with the fans all weekend in Las
Vegas. That said, it is just so tough on drivers who have not competed in a
World Finals freestyle before. Other drivers have told me that nothing
..not
watching it on Speed or on DVD, not even walking the track and seeing close
up how huge these obstacles are
..nothing can prepare you for the first
time you try to freestyle on this course in your monster truck, so this should
be a great learning experience for the talented newcomer.
45 - 1 SAFE AUTO MINIMIZER (MARC MCDONALD) - The odds for McDonald are
the same as for Childress and my comments are the same. This will be a great
learning experience for McDonald and his team and should propel them to great
things in the future, but you have to rate them as a real long shot this time.
50 - 1 TEAM SUZUKI (KATHY WINSTON) - This is the number and rating most
likely to bite me. Kathy has experience at the World Finals, but it's been a
couple of years, and she hasn't freestyled in as many stadiums as I'm sure she
would like to have this season. So for this team it's probably more of a get
reacquainted session. She'll be one of the first onto the floor, which makes
it tough, but as the only woman in this year's field I expect the fans to really
get behind her and go wild. If she responds with an all time best she certainly
is capable of finishing much higher.
So there you have it, let the debating begin. This is the toughest field I've
ever had to handicap, not just because it's the largest ever, but mainly because
it is the best field top to bottom that has ever been assembled at one event
in this sport's history. After all, that is exactly what we've come to expect
in the World Finals. Now let's see who rises to the occasion and who delivers
the performances of a lifetime. This is the place where careers are made and
I'm sure we'll see some breakthrough performances as well as lots of those WOW
moments that we never forget.
To recap, based on these odds, here's the projected outcome at this years Monster
Jam World Finals: In racing Bounty Hunter over Maximum Destruction in the championship
race with Iron Outlaw and Grave Digger also making it to the semifinals. In
freestyle Maximum Destruction wins the World Championship, edging Grave Digger,
with Bounty Hunter, Blue Thunder, Avenger, and Taz not much further behind.
I don't know about you, but I'm ready for the greatest event in Monster Jam
- the time has come for the 2006 Monster Jam World Finals. Tom Meents' words
apply to all here: Go Big or Go Home!